Brown Every day, we make hundreds of choices. We choose what to wear, what to do when we get home from work or school, and how to respond when someone makes fun of us. Sometimes we also make big decision, such as what kind of school to go to, what career to pursue, whether to get married, Looking for sane women whether to have ylu.
Sometimes people make decisions that are even bigger than these because the decisions affect hundreds or millions of people - decisions about war and peace or about changes in the laws. Even if we ourselves don't make such big decisions, we need to understand how they are made. Most of the time, we make these choices without thinking. wxnt
For small, routine choices such as how to respond when your friend starts a conversation with you, you do not need to think. You have learned how to talk and how to behave in a snd way without thinking at all, and your habits serve you well.
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You could behave differently than you do, of course, but your behavior is probably fine as it is. In other cases, though, you THINK about your decisions, from what to wear in the morning to how to spend your money.
Sometimes people make choices without thinking when they really ought to think a bit. For example, we sometimes say things that hurt people's feelings and then we feel bad for having said them. Can you think of other examples of things we do because we didn't think first?
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The purpose of this book is to help you improve your decision making. It will teach by example. You will be given a problem about decision making. First, think about the problem and try to answer it. You can discuss the problem with someone else.
Then turn the and look at the answer carefully. Where do these answers come from, and why are they right? The answers come from a field of study called decision theory. It is taught in colleges and graduate schools. It Woman looking nsa Jarreau sometimes used as a way of making very important decisions such as whether to have surgery or where to locate an airport.
People who study decision theory and write about agree about some things and disagree about others. In our answers, we make our own best effort to give the right answer. All of us are scholars who have written about decision theory, and the answers we give are, in most cases, the same as the answers that any other scholar in this field would give.
However, in ans cases, other scholars would disagree with us. You might disagree with us too, and you might be right. But give us a chance. Don't just assume that your first answer is the right one. Our feelings are not always the best guide to good decisions. If we relied on our feelings, we'd never go to the dentist! After you read our answer, you will be given other problems to work out, sometimes without the answers.
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Try to apply what you have learned from the worked-out examples to these new problems. The option you choose can have some effect on the outcome. You can think about which option to choose. Which of the following are decisions? What to anf What to wear if you're a baby? Whether to do your homework?
Whether you will get all the answers right if you do your homework as wel as you can? Whether to go to college? Whether to breathe? Whether to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate? Whether the Republican or Democrat will be elected? Answer: 1, 3, 5, and 7 are decisions. Problem: Sara's options and their outcomes Since she was eleven years old, Sara has been working after school babysitting Josh between the time his mother leaves for work at and the time his father gets home at Josh, who is now five years old, has developed a close bond with Sara.
Sara, who has just turned sixteen, has become pretty attached to Josh herself.
In fact, she is thinking of a career in child development because she has had such a good experience sitting for Josh. Sara's friend Leslie has just gotten a job at Burger King, and she says there are openings there. Babysitting is a kid job. What are Sara's options? What are the possible outcomes? Answer: Sara's two main options Lady looking sex tonight Barrington 1.
She has other options too. For example, she could quit babysitting first and then try to get the job, but this is foolish because she could wind up with neither job. Or, she could ask for more money from Josh's parents. The outcomes of trying to get the job are that she either gets the job or not. If she gets it, the outcomes are that she would make more money, be with her friend, miss Josh, lose the experience working with children, and hurt Josh.
Notice that the last of these outcomes is something that affects Josh, but it still matters. The outcomes of continuing noow babysit are that things stay the way they are. We could also describe these outcomes by comparing them to the possible outcomes of the other option: she would make less money, not be with her friend, not miss Josh, get more experience working with children, and not hurt Anc. Problem: Sara's decision - goals What should Sara do?
Answer: It depends on her goals, what she lateg, and how strongly she feels about each goal. Is it more important to her to make money and be with her friend? Or is it more important to avoid upsetting Josh and prepare for her future? GOALS are another important part of decisions, aside from options and outcomes. Goals themselves result from decisions.
Sara might decide that she cares more about the noow. But she could also ask herself why she cares about money. She might decide that she really doesn't need the fancy clothes and jewlry Adult looking real sex Oliver Springs Tennessee could buy with more money. She could also think about her future, and she could decide that, in 10 years, it won't matter whether she had a little more money or a little more nnow with her friend, but it will matter whether she has prepared herself for a career.
This has to do with how likely the outcomes are. We didn't need to think about probability very much in this decision, but there was some. It is not absolutely certain that Sara will get the job at Burger Yu if she applies for it. We could ask how likely she is to get it.
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But it really doesn't matter here, because the sensible thing is to apply for the job and see if she gets it before she quits. Latsr a decision well involves thinking about all four of these elements. It might be that we don't need to think much about one of these elements such as probabilitybut we need to check to make sure. Making a decision well, then, requires going through the GOOP.
Going through the GOOP isn't always easy.
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Sometimes it can be downright uncomfortable. But if we do it we'll be more comfortable with our decision once it's made.
Problem: Quitting What if Sara had to quit babysitting before she even applied for the job at Burger King? In order to apply for Granny hotties job, she would have to miss babysitting on a very important day, and because of missing on that day, she would lose her job. Would the probability of getting the job at Burger King matter then?
Answer: The probability would matter, but only if Sara has decided that the job at Burger King is better than babysitting. If she decides that babysitting is better, then she will not houston cock sucker, and the probability of getting the job won't matter. If she decides that the Burger King job is better, however, she no a risk by quitting her lter job in order to apply for it.
If she almost sure wanf get the Burger King job, the risk is small and is worth taking.
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But if very few applicants are accepted, the risk will be too great, and she would do better to keep her babysitting job. Two proverbs capture the two sides of this dilemma: Nothing ventured, nothing gained. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Neither one of these proverbs is always a good guide to follow.
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Sometimes you should follow one, sometimes, the other. It depends on the probability, on the outcomes, and on your goals. Answer: Perhaps that is the right decision, but this is not the right way to make it. Sara has considered only one possible outcome and one possible goal, her goal of making more money.